At 11 a.m. CDT on Thursday, June 11, USDA will release the June issue of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, in which formerly bullish traders will look for renewed confidence after a mass exodus from long positions through May and early June.

CORN

The past two weeks in the corn market have been a jarring example of just how quickly and violently a market can turn when sentiment shifts. Just over a month ago, the July contract set its 2026 calendar-year high close on May 4 at $4.85 3/4. But since then, timely planting of the 2026 crops and decent rainfall forecast through mid-June have prompted risk-off selling, driving prices from those calendar-year highs to contract lows by early June.

With noncommercial corn traders still likely holding a modest net-long in futures, it will be interesting to see if Thursday's USDA update offers any sense of renewed bullishness in that camp. The June report tends to have a demand focus with USDA very rarely altering its corn yield outlook. In fact, since 2000, USDA has adjusted the yield forecast in the June WASDE on only five occasions, the most recent being in 2019 after a particularly challenging planting season. With the June acreage report just around the corner as well, production is very likely to remain near the 15.995 billion bushels (bb) estimated in May, the second-largest U.S. corn crop if realized.

As for demand, most changes will likely be made to the old-crop (2025-26) balance sheet, with exports again a prime candidate for a revision higher. Commitments through May were 3.219 bb and 97.5% of the USDA goal of 3.3 bb of exports for the marketing year. I remain nervous regarding ethanol and feed and residual usage as well, but USDA may very well wait for the results of its June 1 stocks survey to inform those changes. As a result, I could personally see ending stocks temporarily lowered in Thursday's release. But ultimately, I remain neutral to bearish on the figure by August and see it as likely to remain elevated above the 2-bb mark. The Dow Jones survey disagrees slightly, with the average trade guess calling for 2.146 bb of U.S. ending stocks relative to 2.142 bb in the May issue.

On the global balance sheet, USDA's changes have been anticipated to lean bearish, as growing production ideas in South America have played a part in the recent price weakness as well. In Brazil, safrinha corn harvest is just getting underway, reported by IMEA to be 6% done in Mato Grosso last week. The crop is expected to fall just shy of last year's record, though USDA disagreed with CONAB on the size of the 2025 crop. Either way, the Dow Jones survey is calling for a 135.7 million metric ton (mmt) crop, up from 135 mmt in May and compared to USDA's opinion of a 137 mmt record for Brazilian corn production (set in 2023).

In Argentina, corn harvest is further along and nearing halfway complete in the coming weeks. The crop is expected at this point to be a record, and a very impressive one at that, recalling the intense dryness the crop experienced back in late 2025/early 2026. The average trade guess is for a 61.3-mmt crop compared to 59 mmt in May, which would still be below local Argentina forecasts such as 64 mmt from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

As a result of larger production in South America, world corn ending stocks are expected to rise to 298.1 mmt, up slightly from the previous year.

SOYBEANS

Since the last USDA WASDE report a month ago, soybean futures have followed a similar lower path as corn futures, with July futures dropping early this week to four-month lows and essentially eliminating the entirety of the 2026 price rally, which began in early February.

Good planting and early growing season weather have certainly weighed on soybean prices, but for Thursday, it is unlikely USDA will give any official attention to crop conditions and will instead hold its yield and production forecasts unchanged, with the May report's 4.435 bb crop set to be the second largest on record for the U.S., if true.

Meanwhile, the demand side of the U.S. balance sheet is a mixed bag. Traders have been clearly frustrated by the lack of concrete sales to China following President Donald Trump's visit to Beijing in mid-May. New-crop sales are off to the slowest start since 2003. But even so, it is unlikely, in my mind, that USDA will change its outlook for the 2026-27 season this early with still plenty of time to catch up.

For old-crop (2025-26), after steadily cutting its forecast through the marketing year, commitments of 1.468 bb as of the end of May are actually now slightly ahead of USDA's estimated pace (down 18% compared to a 19% anticipated decline in exports, year-over-year). As for crush, I remain bullish and could see yet another revision higher from USDA on Thursday, with pace through April running 8.7% ahead of the 2024-25 marketing year and USDA only forecasting a 7.6% year-over-year growth as of the May WASDE.

The Dow Jones survey calls for 336 million bushels (mb) of soybean ending stocks, down slightly from 340 mb in the May WASDE. I tend to agree with the analysts surveyed and have a lower bias for the stockpiles estimate this time around as well.

As for the world soybean market, given the time of year, it is fair to expect only minor changes from USDA, with the general 2025-26 crop size in South America established at this point and still early to change the 2026-27 forecasts unveiled last month.

For Brazil, USDA estimated a 180-mmt crop in May and traders are expecting the possibility of a slight upward adjustment with pre-report estimates ranging from 180 mmt to 182 mmt and an average guess of 180.4 mmt.

In Argentina, the 2026 harvest is entering the final stages with yields reportedly outperforming expectations thus far in several areas. For this reason, USDA is expected to move their estimate higher on Thursday. The analysts surveyed by Dow Jones expect a 48.6-mmt crop versus 48 mmt in the May WASDE, but it's worth noting that both the Rosario Grain Exchange and Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina are penciling crops north of 50 mmt for this harvest.

In terms of world soybean reserves for the current season, analysts expect 125.7 mmt globally, up slightly from May and just below the previous year's record total.

WHEAT

The wheat market has perhaps been the most frustrating over the past month, with July Kansas City futures managing a measly four sessions higher since the bullish surprise in the last WASDE sent prices soaring up the daily limit. Prices subsequently fell for an astonishing 11 straight sessions at one point to close May and begin June and now sit among two-month lows. Despite bullish arguments to be made given the historically poor U.S. crop and ongoing standoff in the Persian Gulf, world values have remain subdued and traders have opted to focus on what remain comfortable supplies in the immediate outlook.

Beginning with the U.S. balance sheet, with harvest officially underway on winter crops, USDA will have more info to inform their estimates. As mentioned, the U.S. crop is historically poorly rated, with 46% of the crop said specifically to be in poor or very poor condition as of the most recent Crop Progress report. That is the highest reading for that combined category for early June since 2006.

For Thursday, analysts surveyed by Dow Jones are holding out little hope for an improvement, expecting winter wheat production in the Crop Production report to fall to 1.040 bb, down from 1.048 bb in May and the lowest U.S. winter wheat crop since 1965 if true. However, analysts are expecting new-crop supplies to be bolstered by an increase in old-crop stocks, and there are a couple of areas to watch on Thursday for changes. First, with the 2025-26 marketing year ended on May 31, total wheat exports may not hit USDA's 910-mb goal with total shipments as of May 28 reported by USDA at 855 mb. There are always some end-of-season adjustments to be made so it will likely land closer than this gap implies but is still something to watch in my mind.

Wheat imports for both the old- and new-crop seasons is also a category that can surprise the market and is worth being mindful of, with high spring costs in the U.S. giving rise to reports of U.S. buyers looking internationally for less-expensive options. Overall, looking ahead to 2026-27 ending stocks, traders expect minimal changes with an average trade estimate of 760 mb versus 762 mb in the May WASDE. If realized, this would still be slightly above the previous five-year average for U.S. wheat ending stocks but also the lowest in three years.

For the world balance sheet, there are expected to be minimal changes among world crops with the harvest of winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere just getting underway and spring wheat and Southern Hemisphere winter crops obviously still a way out. There is still a lower bias among the trade estimates in the Dow Jones survey, with the average calling for 274.8 mmt of world reserves versus 275 mmt in the May report.

A few countries to keep an eye on include China, where reports of heavy rainfall recently have sparked rumors of quality issues for the crop, though that may not be directly interpretable in Thursday's report. Australia is another upcoming crop to watch, though, as mentioned, it is still months away from being harvested. ABARES in Australia recently forecast a 26.7-mmt crop versus the 30-mmt estimate published by USDA last month. The theme across the world wheat market continues to be the expectation for tightening supplies in 2026-27. However, thus far, the anticipated 1% to 2% drawdown in world stocks has not been enough to discourage risk-off selling amongst traders.

**

Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Thursday, June 11, as we discuss USDA's new estimates considering recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Thursday's USDA WASDE webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2026-27
	Jun	Avg	High	Low	May	USDA
Corn		15,991	16,082	15,852	15,995	17,021
Soybeans		4,433	4,436	4,405	4,435	4,262
All Wheat		1,554	1,603	1,525	1,561	1,985
Winter		1,040	1,071	1,015	1,048	1,402
HRW		507	525	485	515	804
SRW		302	315	291	301	353
White		230	233	222	232	244
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Jun	Avg	High	Low	May
Corn		2,146	2,297	2,087	2,142
Soybeans		336	350	320	340
Wheat		942	980	924	935
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2026-27
	Jun	Avg	High	Low	May
Corn		1,957	2,119	1,857	1,957
Soybeans		309	342	293	310
Wheat		760	796	734	762
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26
	Jun	Avg	High	Low	May
Corn		298.1	300.0	296.0	297.0
Soybeans		125.7	127.0	124.5	125.1
Wheat		279.4	280.0	278.7	279.2
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2026-27
	Jun	Avg	High	Low	May
Corn		278.5	281.0	275.0	277.5
Soybeans		125.3	127.0	124.0	124.8
Wheat		274.8	276.8	272.3	275.0
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2025-26
	Jun	Avg	High	Low	May
CORN
Argentina		61.3	62.0	60.0	59.0
Brazil		135.7	137.0	135.0	135.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina		48.6	49.5	48.0	48.0
Brazil		180.4	182.0	180.0	180.0

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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