JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- Armed with yardsticks, a yield formula and a carload of enthusiasm, a new batch of crop scouts is ready to head out across North Dakota as the Wheat Quality Council hosts its 2026 Hard Spring Wheat and Durum Tour this week.

Around 40 participants are taking part in this year's tour, said Sean Finnie, interim director of the Wheat Quality Council, a decrease from last year.

"We have the same number of companies and organizations that are being represented -- including grain company folks, millers, bakers and other end users, and government types -- but the number of people from each is a bit lower," he said.

Collectively, the groups of scouts will travel thousands of miles across North Dakota and some into western Minnesota. Along the way, they will stop in hundreds of wheat fields and assess the crop's condition and quality, estimating overall yield potential while noting the presence and severity of insects and disease.

The group assembles Monday afternoon in Fargo, where each participant will be trained on how to calculate yield estimates and given a crash course on identifying different wheat pests and disease. Then on Tuesday, July 21, the scouts will hit the road for three consecutive days, traveling along predetermined routes that are followed year after year.

Routes on Tuesday primarily traverse southeast and south-central North Dakota from Fargo to Bismarck. Wednesday's routes cover northwest and north-central North Dakota, ending up in Devils Lake. Then, on Thursday, the group makes its way back to Fargo, with a couple routes crossing the border into western Minnesota.

Finnie noted that while the tour in years past has dipped down into South Dakota on the first day of touring, the lower number of participants and the dearth of spring wheat planted in that region eliminated the route, at least for 2026.

WHAT TO EXPECT

In its most recent weekly wheat update released July 14, the North Dakota Wheat Commission reported that the condition of the state's hard red spring wheat crop remained relatively stable over the past week, and crop development continued at an average pace. However, a heat wave was expected to put the crop to the test.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress and Condition Report released July 13 estimated that 59% of the North Dakota spring wheat crop was in good condition, up from 50% the previous week.

NASS rated the remainder of the crop as 1% very poor, 8% poor, 26% fair and 6% excellent. An estimated 78% of spring wheat in North Dakota was headed, the same as in 2025 and 9 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

According to producer reports collected by the North Dakota Wheat Commission, farmers remained mostly optimistic, with only some areas of dry conditions. Disease pressure has been high due to humid conditions, and producers are carefully monitoring crops.

According to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick, weather conditions in North Dakota have been variable so far this season.

"We've seen just about everything here this summer," he said. "It started off rather cold in the early to mid-spring planting season, causing some delays for folks who decided to wait for warmer soils to begin planting.

"Drought started to creep into the west and south in May," Baranick continued. "It tried to expand in June, but being on the edge of a heat wave late in the month allowed for some decent precipitation for the end of June and early July, though we saw some severe weather out of that, too."

Baranick described rainfall as somewhat frequent, but patchy. Those who saw some thunderstorms noted times of heavy rain, while neighbors went drier.

"That all changed in mid-July as a massive heat wave built up over the Northern Plains, sending some areas of North Dakota well into the triple digits for multiple days," he said. "The far north was spared the worst of the heat, as a front slipped through and brought relieving temperatures and some rain. Meanwhile, the south and southwest, in particular, stayed hot and dry throughout the past week.

"The heat is finally going away here this week, but the rainfall picture isn't getting much better. Lots of ups and downs over the course of the season may lead to some interesting finds out in the fields depending on maturity date and region," he said. "I suspect areas in the southwest and far east will have lower-than-average yields more so than those in the northwest or south-central, but there could be a widespread mix out there."

Finnie said his biggest concern was not so much the daytime temperatures but rather the overnight ones.

"That overnight heat doesn't allow the plants to cool off and get a little break," he said. "There's wheat flowering right now, and when it's this hot during flowering, that could have an impact on quality, specifically test weight."

Riley Schriefer of Golden Valley, North Dakota, told DTN that spring wheat in his area -- roughly 90 minutes northwest of Bismarck -- was looking good.

"We had timely rains but could use some more, as this heat of summer is probably affecting head fill," he said. "You don't have to go very far from us in any direction to see very, very unfortunate drought or hail."

In Crookston, Minnesota, less than 30 miles from Grand Forks, North Dakota, Tim Dufault reported to DTN that the wheat there is turning fast.

"We have now had a week of 90-degree (Fahrenheit) weather," he said. "The wheat was looking good before this. But it turned dry when July rolled around. I think the heat is probably going to knock 10 bushels an acre off the yield. The corn and the soybeans also are showing signs of stress, and the dry beans are hurting, too."

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map released July 16, 43.31% of North Dakota was experiencing at least some abnormally dry conditions, an increase from 32.20% the week before. Moderate to severe drought conditions covered approximately 11.40% of the state.

As for the durum crop, the North Dakota Wheat Commission reported that 83% of the crop was rated good to excellent for the week ended July 12. While the primary durum region had received decent moisture, the amounts varied. Hot temperatures were expected to stress the crop and affect crop ratings for the week of the council's tour.

The USDA Crop Production Report released July 10 forecast spring wheat production at 475 million bushels (mb), down 4.6% from 2025. Based on July 1 conditions, USDA estimated a harvest yield of 52.3 bushels per acre (bpa), up 0.6 bushel from last year. Durum production was forecast to decrease 21.6% to 70.9 mb with an average of 39.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.7 bushel from 2025.

Last year, the weighted average yields from the Wheat Quality Council's tour were 49.0 bpa for spring wheat and 37.0 bpa for durum. In its 2025 Crop Production Summary released in January 2026, USDA estimated North Dakota yields were 55.0 bpa and 44.0 bpa for spring wheat and durum, respectively, while national yields averaged 51.7 bpa for spring wheat and 40.6 bpa for durum.

Look for daily updates on this week's tour and final yield estimates on www.dtnpf.com.

DTN Basis Analyst Mary Kennedy contributed to this report.

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @JasonJenkinsDTN

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