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12/03 11:01 CST College football picks: Numbers show more sweeps than splits
when teams meet twice in same season
College football picks: Numbers show more sweeps than splits when teams meet
twice in same season
By ERIC OLSON
AP College Football Writer
Six of the nine Bowl Subdivision conference championship games will be
rematches of regular-season meetings, and while coaches often talk about the
difficulty of having to beat a team twice in the same year, there have been
more sweeps than splits in such situations since 2000.
The rematches: BYU-Texas Tech in the Big 12, Georgia-Alabama in the SEC,
Duke-Virginia in the ACC, Kennesaw State-Jacksonville State in Conference USA,
UNLV-Boise State in the Mountain West and Miami (Ohio)-Western Michigan in the
Mid-American.
Texas Tech, Alabama, Virginia, Jacksonville State, Boise State and Miami won
the regular-season meetings.
Since 2000, according to Sportradar, there have been 82 same-season rematches,
with 45 sweeps and 37 splits.
The picks for this week's games, with Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM
Sportsbook:
No. 2 Indiana (plus 4 1/2) vs. No. 1 Ohio State The Big Ten title game is billed as a matchup of Indiana's powerful offense against one of college football's saltiest defenses ever, and main attractions are Heisman Trophy front-runners Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin. Often forgotten is that Hoosiers have a top-five defense, too. Pick: Indiana 27-26. No. 3 Georgia (minus 2 1/2) vs. No. 10 Alabama Alabama won regular-season meeting 24-21 on the road but is fighting for its playoff life as a two-loss team. At stake in the SEC championship for Georgia is a top-four seed and first-round CFP bye. Bulldogs have won eight straight since loss to Alabama. Pick: Georgia 28-24. No. 11 BYU vs. No. 5 Texas Tech (minus 12 1/2) The Red Raiders dominated BYU when they met a month ago in Lubbock and have outscored their past five opponents by 175 points going into this Big 12 title tilt. A major distraction for BYU went away when the school kept Penn State at bay and signed Kalani Sitake to a long-term contract. Pick: Texas Tech 35-17. Duke vs. No. 16 Virginia (minus 3 1/2) Virginia beat the Blue Devils 34-17 on the road three weeks ago and did it with an offense that had its way running and passing. Cavaliers did a good job holding down ACC passing leader Darian Mensah and will have to do it again with the ACC title at stake. Pick: Virginia 30-23. Troy at No. 19 James Madison (minus 23 1/2), Sun Belt Barring a surprise CFP bid, this looks like Bob Chesney's final game coaching JMU before he heads to UCLA. Dukes hung 52-plus points on four of their eight Sun Belt opponents and have the top defense in the league. Trojans don't have enough firepower to keep this close. Pick: James Madison 42-10. No. 20 North Texas (minus 2 1/2) at No. 21 Tulane, American The stage is set for a shootout to decide which team goes to the playoff. The Drew Mestemaker-led Mean Green share the national lead with 60 pass plays of 20-plus yards; the Green Wave have allowed 44 to ranked 117th. Pick: North Texas 40-35. Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (plus 2 1/2), Conference USA Jacksonville State's Cam Cook averages a nation-leading 131.8 yards rushing per game. Kennesaw State, in only its second FBS season, has gone from two to nine wins under first-year coach Jerry Mack. Pick: Jacksonville State 31-28. UNLV at Boise State (minus 3 1/2), Mountain West Boise State QB Maddux Madsen will be the starter after missing the last three games with a lower-leg injury. He threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns in the Broncos' 56-31 regular-season win over the Rebels, who have double-digit wins for the second straight season. Pick: Boise State 38-30. Miami (Ohio) vs. Western Michigan (minus 2 1/2) Miami is in its third straight MAC title game. Western Michigan is in its first since P.J. Fleck's 2016 team won 13 games in a row before losing to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl. Pick: Western Michigan 24-17. Prairie View A&M (plus 8 1/2) at Jackson State Jackson State has won 11 in a row at home, and the FCS attendance leader will have more than 28,000 on hand for its second straight appearance in the SWAC title game. Status of injured JSU QB JaCobian Morgan, who has missed five games, is uncertain. Celebration Bowl bid to the winner. Pick: Jackson State 23-21. AP predictions scorecard Last week: Straight-up --- 16-4; Against spread --- 11-9. Season: Straight-up --- 186-55; Against spread --- 117-123-1. ___ Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football |
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